The value-added of primary schools: what is it really measuring?

Gorard, Stephen (2008) The value-added of primary schools: what is it really measuring? Educational Review, 60 (2). pp. 179-185. ISSN 0013-1911

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URL of Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00131910801934185

Identification Number/DOI: 10.1080/00131910801934185

This paper compares the official value-added scores in 2005 for all primary schools in three adjacent LEAs in England with the raw-score Key Stage 2 results for the same schools. The correlation coefficient for the raw- and value-added scores of these 457 schools is around +0.75. Scatterplots show that there are no low attaining schools with average or higher value-added, and no high attaining schools with below average value-added. At least some of the remaining scatter is explained by the small size of some schools. Although some relationship between these measures is to be expected – so that schools adding considerable value would tend to have high examination outcome scores – the relationship shown is too strong for this explanation to be considered sufficient. Value-added analysis is intended to remove the link between a schools’ intake scores and their raw-score outcomes at KS2. It should lead to an estimate of the differential progress made by pupils, assessed between schools. In fact, however, the relationship between value-added and raw scores is of the same size as the original relationship between intake scores and raw-scores that the value-added is intended to overcome. Therefore, however appealing the calculation of value-added figures is, their development is still at the stage where they are not ready to move from being a research tool to an instrument of judgement on schools. Such figures may mislead parents, governors and teachers and, even more importantly, they are being used in England by OFSTED to pre-determine the results of school inspections.

Type of Work:	Article
Date:	May 2008 (Publication)
School/Faculty:	Colleges (2008 onwards) > College of Social Sciences
Department:	Department of Education and Social Justice
References:	Bald, J. (2006) Inspection is now just a numbers game, Times Educational Supplement, 26/5/06, p.21 DfES (2006) Value-added technical information, http://www.dfes.gov.uk/performancetables/primary_03/p5.shtm accessed 15th March 2006 Gigerenzer, G. (2004) Mindless statistics, American Economic Review, 33, 5, 587-606 Gorard, S. (2000) 'Underachievement' is still an ugly word: reconsidering the relative effectiveness of schools in England and Wales, Journal of Education Policy, 15, 5, 559-573 Gorard, S. (2001) International comparisons of school effectiveness: a second component of the 'crisis account'?, Comparative Education , 37, 3, 279-296 Gorard, S. (2002) Fostering scepticism: the importance of warranting claims, Evaluation and Research in Education, 16, 3, 136-149 Gorard, S. (2005) Academies as the ‘future of schooling’: is this an evidence-based policy?, Journal of Education Policy, 20, 3, 369-377 Gorard, S. (2006a) Towards a judgement-based statistical analysis, British Journal of Sociology of Education, 27, 1, 67-80 Gorard, S. (2006b) Using everyday numbers effectively in research, London: Continuum Gorard, S. (2006c) Value-added is of little value, Journal of Educational Policy, 21, 2, 233-241 Lunt, P. (2004) The significance of the significance test controversy: comments on ‘size matters’, American Economic Review, 33, 5, 559-564 Luyten, H. (2006) An empirical assessment of the absolute effect of schooling: regression-discontinuity applied to TIMSS-95, Oxford Review of Education, 32, 3, 397-429 Mansell, W. (2006a) Puzzle of new OFSTED ratings, Times Educational Supplement, 9/6/06, p.6 Mansell, W. (2006b) Shock of low score drives heads to resign, Times Educational Supplement, 9/6/06, p.6 Paterson, L. (1997) A commentary on methods currently being used in Scotland to evaluate schools statistically, pp. 298-312 in Watson, K., Modgil, C. and Modgil, S. (Eds.) Educational dilemmas: debate and diversity, London: Cassell Pugh, G. and Mangan, J. (2003) What’s in a trend? A comment on Gray, Goldstein and Thomas (2001), British Educational Research Journal, 29, 1, 77-82 Rumberger, R. and Palardy, G. (2005) Test scores, dropout rate, and transfer rates as alternative indicators of high school performance, American Educational Research Journal, 42, 1, 3-42 Schagen, I. (2006) The use of standardized residuals to derive value-added measures of school performance, Educational Studies, 32, 2, 119-132 Slater, J. (2006) Anger as Ofsted’s ‘raised bar’ bites, Times Educational Supplement, 26/5/06, p.15 Tymms, P. and Dean, C. (2004) Value-added in the primary school league tables: a report for the National Association of Head Teachers, Durham: CEM Centre Ziliak, S. and McCloskey, D. (2004) Significance redux, American Economic Review, 33, 5, 665-675
Additional Information:	'This is an electronic post-print version of an article published in Educational Review Vol. 60, No. 2 (May 2008): 179-185.
Keywords:	education and social justice, education, social justice, value-added, primary schools, scatterplots
Subjects:	LB2361 Curriculum LB Theory and practice of education LB1501 Primary Education L Education (General)
Institution:	University of Birmingham
Copyright Holders:	Taylor & Francis
ID Code:	600
Refereed:	YES
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